Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
