🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Made $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the month's conclusion surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other platform users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs. Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."