Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
